War Update: Iran Withstands Attacks, Punishes US & Allies | Prof. Seyed M. Marandi

The exchange with Professor Seyed M. Marandi makes starkly clear that the current confrontation is neither spontaneous nor isolated: it is a continuation of a decades-long contest in which military force, political narratives, and strategic patience have all been deployed to reshape the Middle East. What began as a targeted assassination and a series of strikes has now rippled into a broader campaign of punishment, deterrence, and political signaling—with consequences for civilians, regional logistics, and global balance. The conversation illuminates how Iran sees itself: prepared, embedded, and willing to absorb pain while escalating costs for its adversaries. Understanding this dynamic requires situating present violence in historical patterns, unpacking operational choices, and recognizing the asymmetric calculus at the heart of potentially catastrophic escalation. ## Historical Context of Confrontation The present violence did not arise in a vacuum. As the discussion emphasizes, Iran’s confrontations with the United States and its allies have unfolded in multiple phases across generations. From the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s—marked by external sponsorship of Saddam Hussein and the deployment of chemical weapons—to later confrontations in the Persian Gulf and the more recent limited conflicts, the pattern is clear: external actors have repeatedly intervened in ways that deepen and perpetuate regional insecurity. Professor Marandi frames these episodes as “wars of choice” or proxy-enabled attacks rather than inevitable clashes, stressing the role of political decision-making in Washington and Tel Aviv. This historical frame matters because it underlies Iranian strategic culture: a conviction that survival requires not only an ability to retaliate but also preparation for protracted, high-cost scenarios. The long memory of previous assaults—aircraft sunk, oil facilities targeted, and civilian tragedies inflicted—shapes contemporary choices about dispersal, fortification, and messaging. That history also explains why Tehran has invested heavily in underground infrastructure and diversified capabilities designed to complicate a conventional strike-for-strike calculus. ## Nature and Conduct of the Current Campaign What distinguishes the recent operations, as described in the conversation, is their scale, intensity, and force application against civilian infrastructure. The U.S.-led air campaign reportedly focused less on Iran’s hardened, subterranean military assets and more on visible urban and communications targets. Attacks on broadcasting facilities, emergency services, and hospitals reveal a strategy that, whether by design or consequence, imposes civilian suffering and degrades the public sphere. The conversation repeatedly highlights “double-tap” strikes—targeting rescue efforts after initial hits—which have chilling tactical and moral implications. Iran’s response has been wide-ranging and aggressive. Missiles and drones have been launched into occupied Palestine and at U.S. assets in the Persian Gulf, and Iranian forces have reportedly targeted vessels attempting to exit the Gulf. Professor Marandi underscores that many Iranian long-range systems are getting through Israeli air defenses, signaling either a mismatch in intercept capability or a strategic saturation approach. The asymmetric nature of the exchange—high-tech U.S. and Israeli weaponry versus dispersed, underground, and cost-effective Iranian systems—creates unpredictable dynamics in which conventional superiority does not translate into decisive outcomes. ## Iran’s Strategy and Capabilities A leitmotif of the conversation is Iran’s long-term planning and the strategic value of subterranean assets. Decades of preparation have gone into hardening critical infrastructure and dispersing command, control, and weapons platforms. That preparation complicates a simple “destroy the military” narrative: many high-value systems are intentionally made inaccessible to air campaigns. Instead of attempting to break Iran’s military heart through a single campaign, the strikes have targeted civilian and visible infrastructure—actions that, paradoxically, can strengthen domestic resolve and international sympathy. Tehran’s operational choices also reflect a calibrated approach to escalation. In the Persian Gulf, shorter-range, inexpensive missiles and drones are used to strike nearby U.S. assets and shipping, effectively raising the cost of maritime transits without necessitating strategic, long-range strikes. In contrast, longer-range ballistic volleys have been used to pressure Israel and symbolic targets tied to occupied Palestine. The deliberate targeting of logistics and economic lifelines, such as tankers, underscores an understanding of leverage: controlling or threatening the flow of oil and gas translates into global economic consequences and political pressure on the countries supporting the campaign. Professor Marandi repeatedly stresses that Iran will not shy away from imposing costs on adversaries, but also that Tehran sees limits—both moral and strategic—on which tools it will employ. Religious and political constraints, plus the strategic calculus of deterrence, shape the thresholds for options like nuclearization, as he notes with reference to official statements about changing nuclear posture only under existential threat. ## Domestic Resilience and Social Response One of the most striking themes in the conversation is the interplay between violence and social cohesion. Rather than producing mass capitulation, the strikes have, in many places, provoked public displays of solidarity: crowds gathering in support of the armed forces, public mourning for slain leaders, and a surge in popular outrage directed at the perpetrators. Tehran, while scarred by damage and closures, has not fragmented into chaos. Businesses are reduced and many people have evacuated nonessential urban centers, but public functions continue at a minimal level to protect personnel. The conversation also highlights how wartime conditions interact with religious and cultural rhythms. Attacks occurring during Ramadan and close to the Iranian New Year compound the social and psychological weight of the violence, but they also reinforce narratives of sacrifice, martyrdom, and resistance that circulate powerfully in local political culture. These dynamics matter because external attempts to foment internal collapse—through propaganda channels, satellite broadcasting, and paid media campaigns—face the counterweight of wartime solidarity and a narrative of external aggression. Indeed, Professor Marandi draws attention to the sophisticated nature of anti-Iran information operations: foreign-funded Persian-language channels, social media troll farms, and exile communities mobilized to produce a steady stream of defeatist stories. Yet the lived reality on the ground—schools closed, funerals in small towns, television studios hit—can undermine those narratives by reasserting the immediacy of suffering and the need for collective defense. ## Regional and Global Implications Beyond immediate military exchanges, the wider geographic ripple effects are significant. The Persian Gulf’s export routes and tanker movements are central to global energy markets; even limited interdiction or the credible threat of interdiction can spike prices and pressure consumer states to recalibrate policies. If Iran can effectively lock down or threaten Gulf maritime traffic, it gains bargaining leverage that extends beyond the immediate battlefield. The conversation also reframes alliances and alignments: countries that host U.S. bases or coordinate military logistics—Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE—find themselves implicated in the conflict and may face domestic backlash. Public sympathy for Gaza and resentment toward perceived Western complicity can shift regional public opinion in ways that complicate long-standing diplomatic

Iran Withstands Attacks, Punishes US & Allies | Prof. Seyed M. Marandi If you kill the leader of an entire religion, and start a war of aggression during a country's holiest month—the equivalent of being attacked in the West right before Christmas—you better be damn sure you have a swift way to victory. With every day this war drags on, the pain on the US and its regional allies—including Isreal, the primary reason for the war—increases. And Iran knows this. Professor Marandi tells me that Iran has been preparing for this type of scenario for decades. There are reasons why all their important military infrastructure is deep under ground. Listen to Dr. Marandi, Professor at the University of Tehran explaining what it means to be in the city of attack and how the Iranians are reacting to the US' largest assault on the region and on International Law. Support us on the Neutrality Studies substack: https://pascallottaz.substack.com (Opt in for Academic Section from your profile settings: https://pascallottaz.substack.com/s/academic) Merch & Donations: https://neutralitystudies-shop.fourthwall.com #Pascal Hello, everybody. Welcome back to Neutrality Studies. I'm Pascal Lottaz. I'm an associate professor at Kyoto University, and today I have the very special privilege—if not pleasure—of talking again with Professor Marandi from the University of Tehran. He's in Tehran, he's in Iran right now. Professor Marandi, welcome back. #Seyed M. Marandi Thank you very much for inviting me. It's a great pleasure. #Pascal Well, I'm glad to be talking to you. I'm glad that we can talk, because your country is under attack. It was, in my view, pretty viciously and pretty deceptively attacked on Saturday. We're speaking today on March 3rd—it's Tuesday. Can you tell us, how are you? How is it going? And how are you experiencing all the tragedy unfolding? #Seyed M. Marandi Well, you know, history is—well, as I see it, if not much better. This is the third war that the United States has engaged in against Iran. In 1980, when Saddam Hussein invaded our country at the behest of both superpowers, the United States increasingly became the driving force behind him. The West gave him chemical weapons—mostly coming from Germany, from the factories that -- 1 of 12 -- produced them. They set up those factories across Iraq and slaughtered many people. In just one instance, they killed 6,500 Kurds in the city of Halabja and the surrounding areas within a couple of minutes. And the US did nothing. And then ultimately, when Saddam was still losing the war, the United States entered the fray. They fought alongside Saddam Hussein. They sank Iranian naval ships, destroyed Iranian oil installations, and downed an Iranian airliner, killing 290 people. Then, more recently, we saw the 12-day war, where the United States, through deception, pretended to negotiate with Iran. Afterwards, between rounds five and six of the negotiations, there was a blitzkrieg attack. And now, of course, this third war that the United States is directly involving itself in is another war of choice, carried out for the sake of the Netanyahu regime and the elite class that rules over the United States. Excuse me. So this is not new. But this war is a major air campaign. The United States has brought literally everything it can to carry out airstrikes. And since Iran's key military assets are all deep underground and thus inaccessible to the American regime and the Netanyahu regime, they bomb cities. They bomb civilian infrastructure and homes. They bomb hospitals. Last night, I was on Iranian television for a show, and an hour later they bombed Iranian television. The night before, they also bombed Iranian television. The studio I was supposed to go to was bombed the night before. And then last night, I went to a different place. I don’t know exactly what was struck, but they bombed the Iranian National Radio and Television compound. They bomb hospitals, they bomb schools. Right now, as you and I are speaking, a funeral procession is taking place in the city of Minab. It’s not a very large city. On the first day, American missiles hit an elementary school, killing roughly 165 schoolgirls—and there was complete indifference in the Western media: the BBC, CNN, everyone else—because these children are worthless to them. And on that same day, they also bombed a gymnasium where young girls were playing basketball, and they murdered the basketball players. Sorry, they were playing volleyball, and they murdered the volleyball players. So after the first day, the Iranians decided to shut down all schools. Our schools and universities are closed. I had class yesterday, but since it was closed, I didn’t teach. I don’t know if we’re going to have online courses in the days or weeks ahead. It’s also, by the way, during Ramadan. Lots of people are fasting. And in a little over two weeks from now, we have the Iranian New Year. So death and destruction are being rained upon the Iranian people in a war of choice by the Americans during this period. At night in Tehran, we’re being bombed. During the day, we’re bombed. And they have what’s called a double tap—I think that’s the term—double tap airstrikes. In Ferdowsi Square, one of my friends was there. They struck the square, the buildings around it, and then people rushed in to help, rescuers and others. And as they were trying to find survivors, they hit the same place again. So this is what we’re dealing with—two barbaric regimes that have no humanity. But the Iranians are fighting back. We see Iranian missiles striking occupied Palestine. We see Iranians hitting U.S. assets in the Persian Gulf, and the U.S. is hurting. -- 2 of 12 -- #Pascal U.S. jets were downed. Just—let’s go there for a second, just to update everyone. Do you know what the official death toll is so far? And in Tehran, are you still able to move around, or is everybody scared and hiding in bunkers or whatnot? How is life working right now in Tehran? #Seyed M. Marandi Well, at night, people—well, let me first say that the government and the Supreme National Security Council, on day one, asked people who didn’t need to stay in Tehran to leave, because the U.S. and Israelis were bombing civilian infrastructure. For example, they bombed the central building for emergency services, the ambulances. They bombed the central building of the Red Crescent. So these are the monsters we’re dealing with. #Pascal These are purely humanitarian services. They're just there to rescue people. It's so harsh. That's the point. That's the point. #Seyed M. Marandi Just like the double-tap attack. The point is—well, what I was going to say is that last night in Tehran, and the night before, there were huge gatherings of people across the city to support the armed forces and to commemorate the martyrdom of Ayatollah Khamenei. I put clips of these on my Telegram channel and posted a couple on my Twitter account. Huge crowds—but not in one place— spread across different squares in Tehran, both last night and the night before, under air fire, under airstrikes. And in some of the images, you can see people on the streets as the Israelis are bombing and as surface-to-air defenses are working. And people—men and women—stand their ground, denounce the Trump regime, and express support for the state and the armed forces. But businesses—it's not business as usual. A lot of them are closed. Those that are open, I haven’t asked, but I’m pretty confident that if I go to some of the shops still open, they probably don’t have that many customers. So Tehran is less crowded, partly because many people have left, but also because a lot of people, I presume, are staying at home. Government departments are functioning, but at a minimal level, to decrease the risk of their colleagues—government employees—being hurt, killed, or murdered. #Pascal -- 3 of 12 -- Hey, very brief intermission because I was recently banned from YouTube. And although I'm back, this could happen again at any time. So please consider subscribing not only here, but also to my mailing list on Substack—that’s pascallottaz.substack.com. The link’s in the description below. And now, back to the video. #Seyed M. Marandi It's a very, very horrible situation, of course. #Pascal Can you tell me your assessment of what Iran is doing now? I mean, on the one hand, you have this mighty United States arsenal being unleashed on Iran. And of course, most of the things Israel fires are also made in the USA, and they’re obviously striking in coordination. But Iran has now decided to strike back very hard—not only against Israel, but against all of the Gulf states. What do you see as the strategy here, or whatever you can share with us? #Seyed M. Marandi Well, I should also add that, alongside slaughtering Iranians as we speak, the Israeli regime is bombing Lebanon and killing Lebanese civilians. They're bombing Beirut, bombing apartment blocks, bringing them down, crushing people inside, and destroying families. And it's happening at a massive pace. Of course, the West looks away, and Western media looks away—no condemnation of strikes against civilians, because that’s what the West does. They’ve dropped the mask. They are the barbarians they have always been—these regimes—for centuries, since the rise of Western empires. And the facade and the pretense that we saw for a few days—the political correctness we saw for a few decades—that’s all gone. So it’s all out in the open. Right now, the Iranians are hammering Israel, occupied Palestine, with missiles. And it seems that the Israeli regime’s air defenses are running out or are incapable, because almost all Iranian missiles are getting through. And there’s no let-up. The Iranians are striking volley after volley. In the Persian Gulf, the Iranians are using a different set of weapons because they don’t need those long-range missiles. Right now, they’re bombing Tel Aviv as we speak. I don’t know if you can hear it. But you may hear it in a couple of seconds if some of the bombs strike close by. So, in the Persian Gulf region and the Indian Ocean, the Iranians are using shorter-range missiles because the Persian Gulf isn’t very wide and U.S. assets aren’t very far away. The underground bases they use there are firing missiles and drones that are very inexpensive for Iran. And since they’re all in underground bases, they’re not accessible to the United States. They’re striking targets linked to the U.S. in the Persian Gulf region—U.S. bases—and the U.S. has moved its soldiers to hotels and other buildings, so the Iranians are hitting them in those places as well. -- 4 of 12 -- A couple of oil and gas facilities have been damaged, but it's unclear how that happened or who did it. The Iranians are not allowing oil or gas to leave the Persian Gulf. As you know, the price of oil and gas has gone up, although Iran isn’t destroying any of the tankers and there’s no major damage to any oil or gas facilities. But if there’s an escalation, I’m pretty certain that will happen. The tankers that do try to leave the Persian Gulf—a handful of them under U.S. pressure—Iran hit every single one. So the other tankers are staying put. #Pascal Yeah. So basically, they're locked in and nothing’s coming through. And the—what do you make of the—you know, Donald Trump said at the very beginning, in this unhinged speech of his, that all the Iranian forces need to lay down their weapons, including the police, otherwise they’ll all be killed— every one of them, he said. And that the goal of the bombing campaign is to destroy the entire military infrastructure, and then, once that’s done, the Iranian people should naturally rise up, take over the government, and be done with it. I mean, can you tell us how realistic that scenario is? #Seyed M. Marandi Well, this is unhinged, but the West in general—the political elites—have always been unhinged. They believe their own propaganda on Iran. They